Friday, May 25, 2007

McCain poll numbers drop

As predicted, John McCain’s support for illegal immigrant amnesty is starting to show at the polls. This story first broke one week ago, last Friday. At that time, he was polling in the mid-20s, just a few points behind Guiliani and had recently made up some ground on the former NYC mayor. But the polls released since then show a change. Now, he is polling as low as 13%. The message is clear, you can’t win the GOP nomination without the conservative base, and the conservative base does not support amnesty for illegal immigrants.

And the fact is, most of us would be willing to compromise on this issue, understanding that we can’t deport 12 million people. We’d be willing to stipulate on some sort of “path to citizenship” for these people, but ONLY after the border is secure and not one moment before. McCain missed an opportunity here. He could’ve taken a hard-line stance on border security, demanding we protect our southern border, while also promising a path to citizenship for the illegals already here. I don’t think that would have cause nearly the same kind of stir.

Instead, he favors this bill that grants amnesty while still leaving our southern border wide open, and that’s just not acceptable (yes, I know there is a provision for 300 miles of fence to be built, of which only 2 miles have been completed and our border is nearly 900 miles long. Securing 30% of the border is NOT securing the border). McCain is in big trouble and I’m not sure he can pull out of this hole.

And to respond to other comments. McCain is NOT the only GOP candidate who can win the White House. According to real clear politics, head to head hypothetical polls show only one scenario in which a Republican wins: Guiliani vs Clinton. So you progressives shouldn’t be too excited about McCain’s plummet. Plus, the polls don’t include Fred Thompson or Gingrich because they haven’t yet entered the race.


Dan Trabue said...

"We’d be willing to stipulate on some sort of “path to citizenship” for these people, but ONLY after the border is secure and not one moment before."

And I suspect (can't prove it, just a hunch) that this is yet another near-insurmountable hurdle the Republicans are facing this next election - the "conservatives" are dead set on this border/immigration issue as a defining one and I don't think the majority of the US agrees on that point.

So, any candidate that's not strong on this border issue will lose because they'll lose support from the "conservatives" and any candidate that IS strong on the border issue will lose because they'll lose support from the rest of us.

That, on top of the beating they're taking because of Bush and their own pecadilloes. On top of not having any strong candidates that excites their base.


John Washburn said...

Again, the polls don't seem to agree with you. Guiliani has taken a "secure the border first" approach and he leads the GOP nominees, as well as the leading Democrat. So, if we voted tomorrow, the GOP would still hold the White House despite all that you mentioned

Dan Trabue said...

I think the polls do agree with me, as well as reality. The only people outraged about the illegal immigrant issue are the few on the extreme right. You'll note there are no protests, no huge letter writing campaigns, no public outcry against Congress and the president for their actions.

As to your Guiliani theory, from Zogby:

Obama Leads All Republicans in General Election Head to Head Contests

Obama would defeat all Republican opponents, including John McCain of Arizona, Rudy Giuliani of New York City, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, and Fred Thompson of Tennessee in prospective presidential contests, the poll shows.

John Washburn said...

I think you read me wrong. Real Clear Politics (a collaborative of dozens of polls) shows that the ONLY scenario in which a Republican wins is the Rudy vs Clinton scenario. Every other scenario shows the Dems winning. The problem for the Dems is that BOTH Rudy and Clinton lead in the polls.