Bird Flu...should we worry?

Yesterday the Dept of Health and Human Services, in conjunction with the Centers for Disease Control issued a recommendation that US citizens start storing non-perishable food and water in enough quantities for at least 10 days, and possible up to 3 months, should a national Bird Flu epidemic occur.

The story can be found here.
Now for a little context in this story.

The second article explains fully, but the main point is that Bird Flu is a disease of birds, not humans. In rare cases, it can be transmitted from birds to humans, but so far this has only occurred in people who are working closely with birds. No documented case of human to human transmission exists. So why the concern? Why is Bird Flu so prominent in headlines? And why did the DHHS and CDC issue their recommendations?

Well, because the Bird Flu Virus, like all other viruses, is capable of mutation and if it mutated to the point that allowed for human to human transmission, then we all have a major problem. It would spread like the flu, but no one has any inherent immunity built up like we due to the basic Influenza virus. In other words, our bodies have never seen this virus before. It is more deadly, and progresses more rapidly from basic to severe symptoms than Influenza. The result of such a mutation would be a global pandemic echoing that of the 1919 influenza outbreak that killed an estimated 675,000 Americans.

Would such a number be repeated in today’s age? Not likely. We do have drugs to treat those affected with flu, we are more diligent at identifying and quarantining suspected cases and we have better life support capabilities, but such resources would rapidly become overwhelmed in a nation/world wide outbreak. The highest estimates I’ve seen from the Infectious Disease specialists are that 200 million Americans could be infected, with approximately 200,000 deaths…again, this is a worst case scenario.

So what are the chances of the Bird Flu mutating to a human form and causing a major outbreak? No one knows. Some say 50-50, others say it’s less likely. As for me, knowing how unstable viruses CAN be, and knowing that a human form of Bird Flu would absolutely be catastrophic…well, I bought a whole case of canned tuna yesterday.