Monday, November 02, 2009

The dying GOP

I am amused at the parade of pundits who continue to insist the Republican party is on a nosedive because of a stubborn unwillingness to become more inclusive. Recent events in upstate New York have given these pundits more ammunition.

In that traditionally conservative district, the grand party got together in a smoke-filled room and nominated a committed liberal to run for Congress. Dede Scazzafava is a pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control Republican who supported Obama’s stimulus package back in February. Needless to say, when she was placed on the ballot, support for her was a bit subdued. The people in the district were once again placed in a position to choose between two liberals, one with an R beside her name, the other with a D.

Then there was Doug Hoffman, a member of the Conservative party, who is running as a true conservative, something the GOP used to stand for. He acquired some key endorsements from leaders of the conservative movement and suddenly his poll numbers surpassed those of Scazzafava, thus overcoming the old “third party can’t win” jinx. With dwindling support, the Republican bowed out and it now looks like a true conservative will win the election.

The liberal pundits love it. They see this as evidence that there is an internal war in the GOP. They criticize the party for not being more inclusive, not having a big tent. They criticize the party for “allowing” the conservative voices to have too much power. Basically, they criticize the GOP for not being more like the Democrats. In essence, the pundits want a two-party system consisting of an extremist liberal party and a moderate liberal party. There’s only one problem…voters.

Inside the beltway, GOP leaders drink the media kool-aid. They agree that the GOP needs to act more like Democrats. That’s why Gingrich, Michael Steele and John Boehner stood beside their liberal nominee. These guys, along with many others in DC, still haven’t gotten the message, and I think his endorsement of the liberal candidate will deal a crushing blow to any hopes he had of running for President in 2012, we’ll see.

The majority of Americans would consider themselves conservative over liberal, especially when it comes to fiscal policy. And the backlash over the ballooning federal deficit is further evidence of this. The pundits dismiss the backlash as Astroturf, and apparently the GOP leaders agree. Well, here are some numbers to munch on from an April 2009 CBS poll:

74% of Americans believe the government isn’t doing enough to control illegal immigration
51% feel that illegal immigrants should either be deported or placed in a guest worker program
63% feel that illegal immigration is too costly for the nation
52% favor building a border fence
76% oppose driver’s licenses for illegals
55% feel illegals should be turned over to the feds when arrested
72% disapprove of hiring quotas
68% feel that the poor have become too dependent on government assistance
67% feel that minorities are responsible for their own circumstances
51% are pro-life
79% are worried about harming the financial future of their children
53% support the death penalty
63% support immersion in English for illegals
33% support bilingual education
52% favor school vouchers
59% favor nuclear energy
74% favor offshore drilling
59% favor ANWR drilling
51% oppose cap-and-trade
77% feel the 2nd amendment protects gun ownership
57% feel that stricter gun laws would increase violent crimes
63% aren’t confident that Medicare will be available when they retire
61% feel the same about social security
52% oppose legalizing marijuana
56% believe social security is in crisis or serious trouble
36% believe health care is the government’s responsibility

Support for the Republican party is hemorrhaging. Leaders of the party seem to think it’s because they aren’t Democrat-enough. This is classic beltway thinking. They have no clue and refuse to acknowledge what the voters are clearly saying. The voters demand fiscal responsibility, plain and clear, and are more apt to have conservative values than liberal. That’s why the GOP was beat in 2006 and 2008, that’s why a “change” campaign won the White House, that’s why the tea party movement sprung up, that’s why Obama’s approval rating is dropping, and that’s why people refused to support yet another big-spending Republican who thought just having an R beside her name was enough to win the conservative vote. Well, no more!

The GOP is poised to become obsolete and if they choose to listen to the media pundits instead of the voters that’s exactly what will happen. I know many people who have abandoned that party, and not one of them says it’s because the party wasn’t inclusive enough. The GOP is losing support because they are too much like the Democrats, and until they start to bring some contrast to the progressives, that support will continue to erode.



Let's say it again...

59% favor nuclear energy
74% favor off-shore drilling
59% favor ANWAR drilling
Barry Obama favors nuclear energy...FOR IRAN,
and wind & solar for US.


November 4, 2009 - One Day After Election

Virginia - A Triple Sweep for the GOP! Governor, Lt Governor, & Attorney General.

New Jersey - Surprise! A GOP Governor!

It's Looking Good A Return To The Two-Party System In 2010. Now...

How About That Folks!


Anonymous said...


I am not a pundit but it always amuses me how both of you can look at the same facts that I do and then come up w/ conclusions that fit your own fantasy land.


DeeDee Scazzzafava was opposed to gun control. She supports abortion rights and same sex marriage. What is the lesson to be learned here? A district that was elected a Republican since the time of the Civil War elected a Democrat over a conservative who passed the Sarah Palin Tim Pawlenty acid test.

It seems to me that the more the GOP endorses the radical right, the more the moderate independents who decide elections will continue to vote Democratic as the lesser of two evils.

Everyone is conservative in some ways and more liberal in others. In a nation that is growing rapidly more diverse, if the GOP caters to the a core of uber conservatives, it will continue to devolve into a regional party comprised mostly of white voters.

I tip my cap to the new governor of VA. Although a social conservative, he ran on other issues like transportation and infrastructure.

Please not two important facts. 1. For the past 40 years, the Commonwealth of VA has elected a governor belonging to the party that does not occupy the White House. 2. 56% of people in exit polls gave the president favorable ratings.

In N.J. John Corzine's failure to be reelected had much more to do with the economy and his own unpopularity than his party affiliation. In NJ, the president's approval rating was 60% in exit polls.


I have no doubt that the GOP will gain seats in 2010 b/c that's what usually occurs in mid term elections.

Unless, however, the GOP abandons conservative litmus tests and makes itself appealing to more sections of the electorate, it could doom itself to minority status for another generation.

The general perception is that Glenn Beck, Sarah "I-don't-want-to-do-my-job-anymore" Palin, and Rush Limbaugh are the spokes people for teh Republican Party. Those who like these individuals tend to like them a lot. Those who don't, clearly in the majority, dislike these individuals heartily.

I favor a strong two party system and obviously, the electorate deserves a choice between parties with different philosophies. But for the system to survive, and the GOP to prosper, the GOP must wrest itself away from the radical right which has seized the base.

That's the way I see it. Once again, Doc, I think you are misreading what occurred in t e23rd district in NY. If a guy like Hoffman cannot win there, then perhaps you overestimate the appeal of the hidebound conservatives.

Gotta go. Duty calls.


John Washburn said...

Loop, points taken. In response, I refer you to the percentiles as noted and my latest post reacting to the elections


Ladies & Gentlemen, There Goes
Arrogant Loop Garoo Again!

Equating Two Eastern Governorships
with an obscure upper N.Y. 23rd district congressman, and bum-rapping Sarah Palin, Limbaugh, Beck, et al.

First, there is no more Democratic Party. It was permanently replaced in December 2004 (after John Kerry crashed & burned) and Pelosi/Reid
took both House & Senate (Nov 2006)and the Soros/SEIU/Acorn Shadow Government Forever Changed the Political Landscape into A Solo-Party "Progressivism" and kicked the liberals & moderates to the curb.

Virginia & New Jersey will point the way for a new direction out of this current mess.

Nationalized Health-Care is a dead duck, unemployment figures remain grim at near 10%, the 1990 page HealthCare Bill is a obvious fraud, union members are demanding a secret ballot, and Obama hesitates on troop deployment.

"Question with Boldness" said Tom Jeffferson, and the people are waking up, questioning, thinking about "term limits"... holding the Pelosi/Reid, Barney Frank/Chris Dodd, Henry Waxman, John Podesta/Rahm Emannuel types...Responsible!

November 2010 is not that far off.
Stay the Course, folks! reb

Anonymous said...


recently I suggested that you refrain from calling me names. You chose to ignore that suggestion. I now surmise you did so b/c you are senile. Certainly, your argument supports that proposition.

The Loop Garoo Kid


Loop - It's not just a matter of senility, but comparitive judgement.

When you compare a local race involving a few thousand district votes to statewide governor's contest involving millions of voters in two states, you open up your views to ridicule. Did you expect anyone to swallow that bag of mule feathers?

It amounts to monumental arrogance
to give yourself, or your notions any credibility whatsoever.

My reason for creeping senility could be age; what's your excuse?



Anyone notice? Loop dislikes name-calling, then he calls me senile. For shame.

O.K. Donkey-breath! Let's try being
civil; I'm willing.

Hey, are we havin' any fun yet? reb

Anonymous said...

To all and sundry,

For the record,when reb decided to start calling me names, I urged him privately and publicly to reconsider that course. He decided to press on regardless. I guess he doesn't remember. The say the short term memory is the first to go.

I am willing to change course any time. But if you wish to continue your abandonment of civility so be it. I regret that you overdrew the good will bank.